Thunder Bay – POLITICS 2.0 ANALYSIS – Not long ago, Pierre Poilievre looked poised to ride a 25-point polling lead into the Prime Minister’s Office. Today, with less than two weeks before Election Day, the Conservative campaign is in freefall, the Liberals under Mark Carney are resurgent, and backroom talk is no longer just about damage control — it’s about what, or who, comes next.
Sources close to senior Conservative operatives say the knives are already being sharpened, and the name on everyone’s lips isn’t Poilievre — it’s Caroline Mulroney.
Or is it simply that it is politics as usual where a new political leader, in this case Mark Carney gets a bump in the polls and at the least a bit of overshine?
From Dominance to Damage Control: What Went Wrong?
At a recent Brampton rally, Poilievre entered to roaring applause and cheers from supporters draped in “Save Canada” and “Do You Believe the Polls?” T-shirts — but that enthusiasm now feels more like the last vestiges of a movement that’s rapidly losing ground.
With the Trump tariff crisis, fears over annexation rhetoric from the U.S., and Carney’s measured economic counterpunches, the once-dominant Conservatives are now looking at potential electoral disaster. And insiders are already pointing fingers.
Ontario strategist Kory Teneycke, a key architect of Doug Ford’s three provincial wins, called the campaign “the biggest disaster in modern Canadian political history,” slamming it as “fucking campaign malpractice.”
His words were blunt, but Premier Ford backed him up, suggesting that had Teneycke run the national campaign, things might be very different. That public nod to internal dysfunction has opened the door to more speculation: is Pierre Poilievre even safe after this election?
Political campaigns are often likened to chess — a game of strategy, timing, and anticipation. But under the command of longtime Conservative strategist Jenni Byrne, the 2025 federal campaign may be remembered more like a game of Jenga: a towering lead built too quickly, toppled by internal miscalculations, external shocks, and an unwavering commitment to an image that couldn’t pivot with the national mood.
Just three months ago, Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada were riding high with a 25-point lead over the Liberals. Today, with under two weeks to Election Day, that lead has not only evaporated — the party is trailing. How did this happen? And more pressingly, has Canada ever seen such a dramatic reversal of electoral fortune in such a short span?
A 25-Point Lead Lost: A Case Study in Campaign Mismanagement
At the heart of the Conservative collapse is campaign manager Jenni Byrne, a veteran of Stephen Harper’s successful runs but also a controversial figure known for her tough, insular management style. Byrne’s strategy centred around a tight message machine: focus relentlessly on cost-of-living issues, oppose “woke” culture, and frame Pierre Poilievre as a fighter for “the common man.”
In theory, the strategy tapped into legitimate voter frustrations.
But in practice, it boxed the campaign into a corner — one that couldn’t respond to international crises (namely Donald Trump’s shocking tariffs and annexation threats), a rapidly changing public mood, or the need for statesmanship as Canadians began to prioritize stability over confrontation.
Sources say Byrne refused to recalibrate, continuing to push the populist message even as swing voters started to flee. And when the campaign was asked to pivot — particularly in Poilievre’s French-language media appearances and debate prep — it lacked the flexibility or discipline to do so convincingly.
Populism vs. Precision: The Byrne-Poilievre Strategy Unravels
Byrne’s biggest gamble was assuming that what worked on social media — sharp retorts, viral clips, and echo-chamber culture war politics — would translate directly into electoral momentum. For a while, it did. But as the campaign moved beyond partisan bases and into the broader electorate, the act began to wear thin.
Even some core Conservative supporters have started asking whether the “attack dog” approach, one Byrne so fiercely protected, is hurting more than helping.
The contrast with Mark Carney’s calm, technocratic demeanor has been stark — especially among suburban, female, and swing voters.
And unlike Harper-era campaigns, Byrne’s operation appears to have underinvested in ground game infrastructure, media relations, and regional targeting, especially in urban Ontario and Quebec. The Liberals, meanwhile, surged by consolidating left-leaning votes and exploiting every opening left by Poilievre’s rigidity.
Is This the Worst Campaign Collapse in Canadian Political History?
Political historians will likely study this campaign for decades. In modern Canadian federal politics, no frontrunner has ever lost a 25-point lead this close to an election. Not Kim Campbell in 1993. Not John Turner in 1984. Those collapses were significant — but they unfolded over months and amid seismic national shifts.
Poilievre’s plunge happened in just weeks. A potent mix of external shock (Trump’s tariffs), internal mismanagement, poor debate positioning, and an unrelenting leader persona have transformed what should have been a historic Conservative landslide into a case study in hubris.
If Byrne is remembered for helping shape the modern Conservative machine under Harper, she may now also be remembered for misjudging the moment in a campaign that required both populist fire and policy fluency — and delivered too much of the former, none of the latter.
Could the Campaign Be Saved?
The latest polls are showing the Conservatives are starting to rebound.
Part of this is because the tariff issue has been pushed back, at least for now by Donald Trump. However expecting stability from the Trump White House is asking a lot.
Latest Abacus Poll: Liberals at 40%, Conservatives Close Behind at 38%
The poll, conducted just ahead of the French-language debate (Wednesday) and English debate (Thursday), reflects growing voter volatility. Just two weeks ago, the Liberals held a six-point lead. Now, that gap is down to two points—and with key campaign moments still ahead, the race is entering too-close-to-call territory.
While the topline numbers show a tight contest, regional breakdowns still favour the Liberals:
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In British Columbia, the race is tied.
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In Ontario, the Liberals lead by seven points, a key firewall that could protect their seat count.
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In Quebec and Atlantic Canada, they maintain smaller but stable leads.
Some Conservative Strategists Already Looking Past Poilievre
Multiple Conservative insiders are already talking about leadership review scenarios — not months from now, but days after the election results roll in. The fear is that Poilievre’s aggressive, partisan style — the same brand that won him the party leadership — has alienated key voting blocs, particularly women and centrists.
With defections from the NDP to the Liberals in full swing and fears over a “Trump-lite” government galvanizing progressive voters, many in the Conservative tent are now wondering aloud whether Poilievre is a liability they can no longer afford.
Which brings us to Caroline Mulroney — the bilingual, Ivy League-educated Ontario cabinet minister and daughter of former PM Brian Mulroney, who passed away just months ago. Her profile is growing, and insiders say she’s being quietly positioned as the “unifier” the party will need in the post-Poilievre era.
Could Caroline Mulroney Be the Reset Button?
Mulroney’s political instincts have sharpened since entering Queen’s Park. She’s served in high-profile roles in Transportation and Francophone Affairs, and is seen as someone who can attract women, moderate voters, and new Canadians — the very groups Poilievre appears to be repelling.
Unlike Poilievre’s confrontational “attack dog” persona, Mulroney offers a brand of Conservatism that is calmer, classier, and — crucially — electable.
Her late father’s legacy casts a long and respected shadow, and some Tories are hoping Caroline could step into it — especially if the party finds itself licking its wounds after a crushing defeat.
Thunder Bay Voters May See Familiar Patterns of Ontario Politics on a Federal Stage
For voters in Thunder Bay–Rainy River and Thunder Bay–Superior North, the dynamics of this Conservative implosion may feel familiar. Under Ford’s Ontario PCs, Northern Ontario has often been a political afterthought, and Poilievre’s focus on urban populism and social media soundbites has only deepened that sense of disconnect.
Whether it’s affordability, healthcare, or clean energy transition, local voters have expressed fatigue with rhetoric over results. If Poilievre falls, and Mulroney rises, Thunder Bay may find itself being courted by a more centrist, professionalized Conservative Party — one that looks more like her father’s Big Blue Tent than the red-meat populism of Poilievre.
For now, however, Poilievre remains the face of the campaign. But in backrooms from Ottawa to Queen’s Park, the countdown to a leadership showdown may already be ticking.
