Poilievre at risk in Carleton, Singh faces tough race, and national polls tighten as election nears

NetNewsLedger Politics 2.0 – OTTAWA / NATIONAL – With Canadians set to cast their ballots on April 28, two major federal party leaders are facing significant challenges in their home ridings—Pierre Poilievre in Carleton and Jagmeet Singh in Burnaby South—as party support shifts dramatically in the final stretch of the campaign.

Poilievre in Trouble: Carleton Race a Toss-Up

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who has represented the Ottawa-area riding of Carleton since 2004, is now in a dead heat with Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy, according to multiple internal polls obtained by political insiders.

Fanjoy and Poilievre are sitting at 48% and 49%, respectively, well within the margin of error. The numbers have raised red flags at Conservative Party HQ, where experienced campaigners—normally deployed to battleground ridings—have been reassigned to Carleton in a last-ditch effort to hold the seat.

Party officials say the internal polls, confirmed by Ontario PC and federal sources, also show the Liberals leading in the Ottawa region with 53% support, versus 31% for Conservatives and just 10% for the NDP. Poilievre won the riding with 52% of the vote in 2021, but now finds himself defending turf many thought was safely blue.

Liberal Momentum and Conservative Anxiety

This comes as the Mark Carney-led Liberals continue to surge in critical ridings across Ontario, thanks in part to the party’s strong urban base and detailed policy rollout. Former Conservative Senate Leader Marjory LeBreton, who resigned from Poilievre’s riding association over his support for the 2022 trucker convoy, warned:

“If Pierre has the same results as we had under Erin O’Toole and Andrew Scheer and he loses his riding as well, all hell will break loose. The party will fracture.”

Despite reassurances from Conservative spokesperson Simon Jefferies that Poilievre remains on track to retain Carleton, the reallocation of campaign staff and rising anxiety within the party suggest otherwise.

The Conservatives have run an mainly error free campaign, however the real issue perhaps is within the Conservative War room. The Conservative campaign leadership failed to be prepared for Trudeau stepping down. Once that happened, the Conservatives fell from a major lead in the polls, and discussion of a Conservative majority and perhaps the decimation of the Liberals, to the situation now where a Liberal majority is more likely.

Singh Struggles in Burnaby South as NDP Hits New Low

It’s not just the Conservative leader feeling the pressure. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is also facing a surprisingly strong challenge in Burnaby South, where internal polling shows the race tightening.

The NDP, according to the latest Nanos Research tracking, is now polling at just 7.2% nationally—its lowest level of the 2025 campaign.

Singh, once seen as a secure figure in Metro Vancouver, now finds himself caught between a weakening party brand and increasingly vocal calls for leadership renewal if results falter.

New Nanos Poll: Platform Boosts Conservative Surge, Narrows National Gap

Despite challenges in Carleton, Poilievre is seeing positive momentum nationally. The latest Nanos nightly tracking (ending April 23) shows the Conservatives climbing to 39.3%, closing the gap with the Liberals, who stand at 42.9%. The release of the full Conservative platform appears to have given the party a boost, especially on economic issues.

On the question of preferred prime minister, Carney continues to lead with 46.3%, but Poilievre has narrowed the gap to 36.9%, the closest margin since tracking began.

What This Means for Thunder Bay and Northwestern Ontario

For voters in Thunder Bay and across Northwestern Ontario, these shifting dynamics signal major implications—both in terms of federal funding priorities and party leadership stability.

If Poilievre or Singh were to lose their ridings, it would spark immediate leadership reviews and potentially realign party strategy heading into 2026.

While Thunder Bay isn’t among the top battlegrounds, the national trends are telling: the Liberals are holding ground, the Conservatives are gaining, and the NDP may be in freefall.

All eyes are now on ridings like Carleton and Burnaby South, where national leadership—and party futures—are on the ballot.