Singh’s Strategic Missteps Lead to NDP’s Historic Defeat

Thunder Bay – POLITICS 2.0 – In the 2025 Canadian federal election, the New Democratic Party (NDP) experienced an unprecedented collapse, securing only seven seats and losing official party status.

Leader Jagmeet Singh not only lost his Burnaby Central seat but also announced his resignation, marking a significant downturn for the party he led since 2017. ​

Over the past five years, Jagmeet Singh was a frequent visitor to Thunder Bay. The NDP leader worked to raise the party’s fortunes in Thunder Bay, and across Northern Ontario.

Over the past ten years, the New Democrats have had leadership struggles as they seek a return to the loftier days under Jack Layton. Thomas Mulcair who followed Layton came across during Question Period as a razor-sharp prosecutor, but when I sat down with him, he was engaging, humourous, and someone the New Democrats should have taken across Canada for the barbecue season and let Canadians get to know him.

Jagmeet Singh in interviewing him, comes across as knowledgeble, caring, and a strong advocate. His political skill at going for the jugular however didn’t seem as strong. When the NDP was seen as sitting in the backseat letting Justin Trudeau drive the bus, put Singh and the New Democrats in the position of being more like a lobby group than a contender for leadership of the country.

The Confidence-and-Supply Agreement: A Double-Edged Sword

Singh’s decision to enter a confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals in 2022 aimed to advance key NDP policies like dental care and pharmacare. However, this alliance blurred the NDP’s distinct identity, causing confusion among voters and diluting the party’s brand. The agreement’s eventual termination in 2024 further destabilized the party’s standing. ​

The New Democrats did not see how propping up Justin Trudeau was going to have a political stinger in the tail that hit hard in 2025.

Campaign Misalignment and Leadership Challenges

The 2025 campaign saw Singh struggle to differentiate the NDP’s platform amid rising tensions with the U.S. and a surge in Canadian nationalism. His messaging failed to resonate, leading to a significant drop in support. The party’s inability to adapt to the shifting political landscape contributed to its electoral downfall. ​

The threats to Canada spewed out by American President Trump hit hard on the 2025 federal election. The New Democrats were, in effect, swept away when the race really became a contest between the Liberals and Conservatives.

Throughout the campaign, the NDP often seemed to focus on the Carney follies rather than on building up their own place in the race. Attacking Carney likely pushed some voters to the Conservatives rather than to the New Democrats.

Thunder Bay’s Electoral Shift Reflects National Trends

In Thunder Bay, traditionally an NDP stronghold, the party’s support eroded significantly. Liberal candidate Patty Hajdu retained her seat in Thunder Bay-Superior North, reflecting the broader national shift away from the NDP. ​Marcus Powlowski beat back the NDP and experienced candidate Yuk Sem Won.

Looking Ahead: Rebuilding the NDP

With Singh’s resignation and the loss of party status, the NDP faces a critical juncture. Rebuilding will require a reassessment of the party’s identity, leadership, and strategy to reconnect with its base and reestablish its presence in Canadian politics.​

For Thunder Bay residents, the NDP’s collapse underscores the importance of clear political identity and responsive leadership. As the party seeks to rebuild, local engagement and grassroots mobilization will be key to regaining trust and relevance.

It is likely in the next election, the New Democrats will be looking for a new candidate in Thunder Bay Rainy River, despite all her door knocking, community awareness and solid political work, Yuk Sem Won has not been able to break through. In 2019 and 2021 she garnered 28.5 percent of the vote to finish third in each campaign. This time her numbers fell to 6.8 percent of the vote – basically matching the party’s polling level across the country.

The path likely is that the New Democrats need to keep marching. Find a candidate early, get the riding association behind the campaign, and focus on the reality that in a minority parliament it quite possible the next election is a year away.